Many tried-and-tested theories come up again and again in global economics. These are the philosophies and formulae that our leading economists use as the foundation of their own musings and studies. But there are situations in which these theories fall short, and our greatest minds are obligated to look elsewhere for their underpinning wisdom.

Speaking at the Alltech ONE Virtual Experience, respected Irish economist David McWilliams admitted that he was confronted with this very issue when thinking about how the economy will develop post-COVID-19.

“We are at this extraordinary, one-off moment where the global economy is now in a tailspin,” said McWilliams, “and the timing of when we get out of that is not going to be dictated by anything you and I understand in economics.”

Fortunately, having worked as an economist for around 25 years, as well as taking up a professorial post at Trinity College Dublin, McWilliams has built up other resources outside of regular economic texts that he can look to for inspiration. His advice in this instance is to look to history to determine how our ancestors dealt with and emerged from similar challenges. The events of the past have helped to inform him on:

• Short-term remedies.
• Long-term changes.
• The possible economic opportunities of the future.

Using history as his basis, McWilliams offered insights into three potential economic phases as the world moves beyond the COVID-19 crisis.

1. A shifting psychology

One point that McWilliams was certain of is that the world post-COVID will definitely not be the same as before, and neither will be the ways we look and think about our economic future. Referencing major, world-changing events of the past, such as World War I and the fall of the Berlin Wall, he said that crises tend to dramatically shift people's ways of thinking and operating.

“What was radical before the crisis becomes mainstream, and what was mainstream becomes redundant,” explained McWilliams during his keynote presentation.

However, McWilliams believes that a drastic change in outlook is necessary for the world to get itself back on track. He spoke about the monetary authorities around the globe as a point of reference, specifically about how they are using money and spending to help fix the current global issues. This unprecedented spending goes against the economic principles of any country. It will also doubtless lead to challenges, such as mass inflation, further down the line. But McWilliams is adamant that, in a crisis, it is essential to deal with the immediate problem first and cross the next bridge when you come to it.

“You know, if you're on a football team, you don't face the potential team if they do this, that or the other,” analogized McWilliams. “You've got to face the team that's in front of you.”

But quick thinking and action can only keep going for so long. Mindsets will change again, and tough decisions will need to be made.

“I think the consensus that locking down is the most important thing will begin to atrophy as the economic pain amplifies, and that's a big worry,” mused McWilliams. “It's very, very hard to know where we draw the line and the trade-offs we have to make — what they are and how to make them.”

As we move forward, McWilliams does believe that there should be a serious discussion about the long-term sustainability of our economies during varying states of lockdown.

2. The new global supply chain

When it comes to the long-term effects of global economics, McWilliams predicts yet another significant shift in thought processes and priorities.

“I think what's quite obvious for a global business is that the supply chain is going to change profoundly,” he stated.

Again, looking at history, McWilliams pointed out that from the time the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 right up until early March 2020, the global mindset stayed the same.

“The great corporate economic narrative is globalization, based on an extended and efficient supply chain,” explained McWilliams, “where sourcing and assembling become crucial.”

However, instead of history repeating itself, McWilliams believes that the events of COVID-19 will completely change people's perceptions of what is vital for their businesses and supply chains. He thinks that the most notable differences will be that:

• More emphasis will be put on reliability.
• Cost and efficiency will become less critical factors.

“I think what's going to happen is that the more extended the supply chain, the more likely you'll see that people will come back and begin to manufacture in countries that they really, really want to do business with — they trust, they understand, they feel comfortable there,” said McWilliams. “And I think that maybe price, which had been the dominant vector for many, many years in the supply chain management, will probably be elbowed out by security, by perceptions of security. Can we keep this plant open? Do we know what we're actually dealing with?”

Spring-boarding off of this change in mindset, however, McWilliams believes that opportunities will arise for small countries to become important players in the global supply chain. He used his native Ireland as an example of how this can happen. From being in the depths of recession in the 1980s — when McWilliams’ own father lost his job — the country has grown economically and socially to become an essential cog in international business by building trust and relationships.

“I think small cogs in the global supply chain, countries that position themselves well, could do extremely well,” McWilliams explained. “I think there's a huge opportunity, because I do think supply chains will contract. And I think that relationships will trump price; I think trust will trump competitive edge.”

3. Opportunities arise

Taking both of these major mindset shifts into account, McWilliams believes that businesses and leaders with the right wherewithal could find lucrative prospects in this new economic landscape. Again, this theory is based on narratives that have repeated throughout history.

In his presentation, McWilliams first referenced Florence, Italy, in the 1300s. Having suffered an enormous death toll due to the Black Death in 1347, it was believed that Florence’s then-thriving society would never recover. However, the Florentines contradicted all assumptions by ushering in the Renaissance, a historical period that forever changed how we view the world and operate within it. McWilliams then noted that something similar happened in the United States after the flu pandemic of 1918 to 1920. The country entered the new decade by diving nose-first into a period of intense deflation — but from this dark pit of despair sparked the now-famous Roaring ’20s, an economic upswing that brought electricity, radio and motor cars.

“There are many instances where you imagine that humanity will go into a tailspin,” said McWilliams, “and what humanity actually does is entrepreneurs come through, leaders come through, thinkers come through, and they change the world.”

With regard to the post-COVID-19 economy, McWilliams sees the same opportunities arising once again. While he did admit that not everyone will succeed and a lot of money will be lost across the board, there is potential for entrepreneurs to adapt and shine. Furthermore, putting faith in this entrepreneurial spirit, he believes that an economy can repair itself.

“These opportunities emerge in crises, and you just have to have the self-confidence and belief in yourself to keep plowing on,” assured McWilliams. “And I think, as I said before, all these crises lead to great renewal. And great renewal stems from people taking a risk because things have changed, and normality has changed. And that normality, in a way, is full of risks already, so why not go ahead and direct your own risk, in that regard.”

McWilliams concluded by again looking at a work from history. He cited the poem “The Second Coming” by famous Irish literary W.B. Yeats, saying, “The center will not hold, and things will fall apart only if the best people lack all conviction, allowing the worst people to come through and be full of what he called passionate intensity, full of slogans, and dominate the agenda.”

McWilliams explained that this is a message of rallying urgency, calling on all leaders to step up and figure out a way through the situation that lies ahead. This, he believes, is how humans have survived adverse periods throughout history, and how we will do so once again.

“All these things, this is all part of what I call the great commercial adventure of life,” stated McWilliams. “As long as we put commerce at the center, in terms of the adventure that is commercial adventure, and we protect it, then it's an evergreen urge that humans have, and it will not be defeated.”

Visit one.alltech.com for more information.

As part of Alltech’s effort to provide valuable resources to colleagues, customers and the global agricultural community confronting COVID-19, the company has created a special discussion series, Forging the Future of the Farm & Food Chain. Available online beginning today, this free, on-demand series features experts from around the world as they share their insights into how the global pandemic is affecting the agriculture industry’s present and future.

“Crises illuminate character, and COVID has highlighted the heroic work undertaken by the global agriculture community to ensure a secure food supply in the midst of such uncertainty,” said Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech. “We created this series as an expression of our support for this community. In addition to offering valuable information and insights in the context of this COVID challenge, we hope to deliver inspiration — we have an opportunity in this moment to, together, shape the future of the farm and food chain.”

The series consists of presentations from Lyons and three panel discussions with experts including David McWilliams, economist and professor at Trinity College Dublin; Jessica Adelman, CEO of ESG Results and former executive at Kroger; Jack Bobo, futurist and CEO of Futurity; and Ryan Quarles, Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture.

Forging the Future of the Farm & Food Chain, a special COVID-19 discussion series, includes:

• Cultivating Optimism & Opportunity: Leadership in Times of Crisis

In times of crisis, leadership becomes even more consequential. How can leaders bring certainty in a time of uncertainty? How can they help their teams think proactively in order to discover opportunity and drive innovation? 

Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech, explores how a leader can shape a culture of resilience that empowers a team, even during times of turmoil.

• From the Frontlines of Food Production

The COVID-19 crisis has brought renewed attention to not only the critical importance of food production, but also to the people on the frontlines who work tirelessly to ensure we have food on the table. This panel discussion takes a first-hand look at the experiences of those working within the food/feed sector in the midst of COVID-19.

The panelists are global Alltech team members Matt Kwok, China operations manager; Sayed Aman, India managing director; Andrea Capitani, Italy business manager; and Alex Galipienso, Spain general manager. The panel is moderated by Michelle Michael, Alltech media producer.

• The Post-COVID Consumer: A Remaking of the Market?

Consumer trends are constantly evolving, but post-COVID, will the market see another seismic shift? This panel discussion features an investigation into the lasting impact COVID-19 could have on consumers and the global economy.

Moderating the panel is Damien McLoughlin, professor of marketing at University College Dublin, with panelists David McWilliams, economist and professor at Trinity College Dublin; Jessica Adelman, CEO at ESG Results and former executive at Kroger; and Jack Bobo, futurist and CEO at Futurity.

• Keep Calm & Carry On: The Essential Business of Agriculture

In this panel discussion, experts investigate how the current crisis is reshaping the agriculture sector. What permanent changes could COVID-19 create in how we source, produce and deliver food to market? Will there be a new appetite for automation and supply chain provenance?

Mary Shelman, former director of Harvard Business School's Agribusiness Program, moderates panelists John Young Simpson, president of Bluegrass Partners in Singapore; Ryan Quarles, Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture; Mike Osborne, former president and CEO of Nutra Blend; and Kayla Price, technical manager of Alltech Canada.

• Planet of Plenty in a Post-COVID World

In the midst of this COVID crisis, the global agriculture community has carried on its essential work — rising with the sun no matter the circumstance. We have provided the security of certainty at a time of great uncertainty and, in doing so, have reshaped the perception of our industry and perhaps even the way we view ourselves. 

Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech, shares his thoughts on how we can create a world of abundance post-COVID. How will we harness this renewed trust? Will the experiences of this time usher in a new approach to the ways in which we produce food, structure our supply chains and connect with consumers?

To access the Forging the Future of the Farm & Food Chain series on-demand, visit alltech.com/futurefarm. As Alltech has been closely monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic, an online COVID-19 resource portal has been created for customers and industry partners. 

This COVID-19 special series reflects the insightful, thought-provoking content that will be available as part of the Alltech ONE Virtual Experience beginning on May 18, 2020. The virtual program will include live-streamed keynote presentations and on-demand video content from some of the world's leading industry experts as they address the challenges and opportunities facing agriculture today. Learn more about the ONE Virtual Experience and register here.    

There is nothing more important to us than the safety and well-being of our colleagues, customers and communities. As a family company, we understand that the interconnectedness of our lives means that the actions we take within our business have an impact on countless others.

We share your concerns about the spread of COVID-19 globally. We are committed to doing our part to reduce COVID-19’s impact as quickly as possible, while maintaining our supply and service to our world’s livestock and crop producers.

Our business spans more than 120 countries, so we first began monitoring COVID when it emerged in China. In spite of the many challenges, our team in China has continued serving our customers, and we have been able to maintain production and continuity of supply due to the strict biosecurity controls that we had already established prior to COVID-19.

As COVID-19 expanded its reach, we responded by establishing a dedicated COVID-19 task force representing all regions of the world. Together, with a team of senior management, we review the latest information, including the recommendations of the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on a daily basis to adapt our approach to this dynamic and evolving situation.

A few of the specific actions we have taken to prioritize the safety of our team and the continuity of our service to our customers include:

1. COVID-19 company policy – Our policy addresses limitations on the travel of our team, including contractors and consultants, as well as other required practices to safeguard all of our sites. This is something we are reviewing daily and continually updating to ensure best practice.
2. Visitor screening form – A visitor screening form must be completed by any guest, including internal guests and truck drivers, before they are able to enter any of our facilities. This measure is a first line of defense to safeguard against any known risks.
3. Limitation of outside visitors – While we are maintaining some business-critical meetings, we are utilizing virtual meeting platforms as an alternative or are postponing visits to a future date. We are not allowing tours or visits to our facilities that are not deemed to be business-critical at this time. Truck drivers making deliveries or pickups are asked to stay within their cabs or as close to their trucks as possible, and any entry to our facilities must be approved following completion of the visitor screening form.
4. Enhanced cleaning protocols – In addition to our regular cleaning services, we have enhanced our procedures to occur at more frequent intervals and with greater attention to the disinfection of all surfaces.
5. Team member health – We are joining governments around the world in a shared effort to slow the spread of COVID-19 by asking our team members to work from home, if their function allows. Additionally, we have required that any team member who is feeling ill is not to return to the office until they have been free of a fever for more than 24 hours, without fever-reducing medications. Any high-risk exposure or confirmed case of COVID-19 necessitates a 14-day quarantine.
6. Operational continuity – Alltech operates nearly 100 manufacturing facilities around the world. Our global infrastructure enables us to shift production if necessary. We are working closely with all of our manufacturing teams to ensure operational continuity and service to our customers. We have implemented plans for all critical business units to work remotely, if required. As part of this, we continue to stress-test our systems and implement safeguards on the security of all data and technology.
7. Supply chain – We have been in contact with our key suppliers to review the status of all raw materials and have been reassured of continuity. While the majority of our materials and services are sourced in the Americas, we have built in contingencies globally, should the need to source from other geographies become necessary. Our global manufacturing and logistics capabilities position us favorably to continue to consistently serve our customers.

We have seen in other countries that food industries have been given essential industry status. As governments continue to shape their response to COVID-19, I hope you will support efforts to ensure a stable food supply.

To achieve this goal, the care and welfare of animals and crops must be of utmost importance. Feedstuffs, equipment for animal and crop production, and logistics are essential to ensure the certainty of our food supply. We ask that you implement any and all measures at your disposal to protect these vital functions until COVID-19 subsides.

We trust you value the importance of a safe, stable food supply. Thank you for your support as we seek, together, to provide security in this time of unprecedented uncertainty.

Sincerely,

Dr. Mark Lyons
President and CEO, Alltech

The rise of insulin prices over the last decade, plus the cost of pumps and syringes, has made treatment for diabetes more expensive than ever. Will a cost-effective insulin replacement ever exist? Dr. Ronan Power discusses Alltech Life Science's breakthrough in insulin pills for diabetes.

The following is an edited transcript of Tom Martin’s interview with Dr. Ronan Power. Click below to hear the full audio.

Tom:            Insulin prices have more than tripled in the last decade, and because insulin cannot be taken orally, pumps and syringes can add significantly to the cost. The result? This treatment is quickly becoming unaffordable for many diabetics, but insulin therapy is critical for most of them, and there's a search for options. One might have been found.

                     Dr. Ronan Power, vice president of Alltech's Life Sciences division, joins us to talk about something of a revolution in the treatment of diabetes. Thanks for joining us, Dr. Power.

Ronan:          Thank you, Tom.

Tom:            Tell us why, first of all, there is this need. I kind of described it in the introduction, but diabetes is a huge problem in this country, I assume.

Ronan:          Absolutely. It's a huge problem not only in the Western world, but it's becoming more and more of a problem in countries that have, if you like, found affluence in the last two to three decades and are adopting more and more of a Western-style diet and lifestyle. It's becoming a really, really big problem. I think one of the figures I saw most recently was an estimated 360 million sufferers worldwide, but that's only diagnosed cases.

                     Of the subtypes of diabetes, the two main ones, of course, people will be familiar with are Type 1 and Type 2. Type 1 typically hits younger people, and that is a type of diabetes where the cells in the pancreas that produce insulin are destroyed, and that can be an autoimmune-type disease or a reaction to a virus, in some cases. The most prevalent form is Type 2, which used to be called “adult-onset diabetes,” but now, it's creeping downwards in the age group and it's hitting people as young as four years of age — even younger — and that's part of the associated obesity epidemic or pandemic that we see in the world today.

Tom:            We're seeing studies that are projecting that if these rates, these obesity rates, continue at current trends, more than half the population of almost 40 states in the United States will be obese in 2030. What are the implications of failing to stop and reverse that trend?

Ronan:          I think they're absolutely massive — and I would say 50% is a conservative estimate. If you look at the implications of obesity as they relate to diseases like diabetes, there is a condition known as metabolic syndrome that precedes the development of diabetes. This is a condition which is characterized by not just obesity, but high blood pressure, high cholesterol or dyslipidemia. That's abnormal blood profiles, high triglycerides and so on and so forth. That can predispose people to many, many diseases, particularly coronary vascular disease or cardiovascular disease and pulmonary disease. That's even before you hit any diabetes threshold. Once people develop diabetes, there's a whole range of attendant problems that come with that, as people are aware of, but one of the larger problems, in my opinion, is the state of insulin resistance that begins to develop in people who tend to be overweight or have a higher-than-normal body mass.

                     Insulin resistance in itself can cause huge problems. Let me just mention an example. One of them is called PCOS, or polycystic ovary or ovarian syndrome. That's becoming a huge problem in the female population in terms of reduced fertility, inability to conceive and inability to sustain a pregnancy. That's a direct implication of insulin resistance. So, we're not just talking diabetes here; we're talking much broader, more debilitating conditions of life, if you will.

Tom:            We're here to talk about something that you're working on, which is an alternative to insulin that you have in development now. Can you tell us about this?

Ronan:          Sure. This is, I guess, the culmination of about 12 years of work in our labs here at Alltech. This started off as a plant-based or a botanical-based compound we found which was able to increase energy production in cells, or seemingly increase energy production in cells. Actually, it turned out to be that it improved energy consumption. So we've been studying this for quite some time, and we actually have made a lot of variance of this particular compound. We isolated it. We synthesized it. We made variations on a theme, as it were. Today, we have a compound, which we call Compound 43 — obviously a very imaginative name, the number 43, the variation of the compound which we developed. So, Compound 43 has got a very unique ability in being able to bind to insulin receptors and activate that receptor in the absence of insulin.

                     In effect, if you want to view the action of insulin on a cell as a lock and key mechanism, imagine that insulin is the key. It fits into a lock, which we shall call the insulin receptor. When both lock and key are working correctly and the mechanism is turned appropriately, that opens a glucose channel and allows glucose to enter the cell and be used properly.

Tom:            Let me make sure I understand up to this point. The compound that you're working on replaces that key.

Ronan:          It replaces the key. It can activate the lock even when the lock is broken, because in Type 1 diabetes, you're missing the key. In Type 2, there's something wrong with the lock mechanism; it doesn't work properly, or not at all, in some cases. But what this compound does is it binds to the insulin receptor (i.e., the lock) and can open it.

Tom:            So, it's doing the work of the insulin.

Ronan:          It's doing the work of the insulin. What we have, in effect, is an insulin replacement. It doesn't bind to the insulin receptor in the same place as insulin. It binds at different locations. Its purpose, simply, or what it does, is it brings the two arms of the insulin receptor together, and once they join together, it activates the insulin cascade inside the cell, which then allows that glucose door to open and allow glucose in.

Now, it's not a runaway reaction, by any means. It does stop, so there is a finite half-life of this compound, which we've determined to be about eight to ten hours. It doesn't crash the blood glucose. It takes it down, but it doesn't bottom it out at a dangerous level.

Tom:            Now, as I understand it, this would be administered orally as opposed to a shot.

Ronan:          Absolutely. This is our big breakthrough in the last year. When we initially tested this compound, we were using it in the traditional insulin-type way, of a subcutaneous injection, or even an IP, an intraperitoneal injection, but we've now developed a formulation which can be taken orally in tablet form, pill form, which works very well indeed. We have actually tested that in mouse models of diabetes, several different mouse models of diabetes, and it works perfectly well. The compound itself, we've also tested in human cell lines — liver, skeletal muscle, all of the major organs that are impacted by diabetes — and find that it works beautifully.

                     It can even be used in concert with insulin, in some cases, because when I describe the Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, especially for Type 2, there are various levels of it. For some people, insulin works, but not as well as it does in the normal case. That's what we term “insulin resistance.” Insulin resistance can be a graded or a gradated type of resistance. That's why some diabetics, Type 2 diabetics, still take insulin, but this can actually help insulin action, so it works in concert with insulin, in some cases. Because it doesn't share the same binding site, it can be an additive or synergistic effect.

Tom:            I'm sure that anybody who is suffering from diabetes and hears this is going to be quite excited and quite hopeful.

Ronan:          Yes.

Tom:            How should they temper that hope? How far off are you, do you believe, from going to market with this?

Ronan:          First of all, I wouldn't be sitting here if I didn't believe this was a breakthrough. I believe that we can get this out through what we call a phase-one clinical trial in humans within about three years. If it shows promise there, we hope to go right ahead and follow with phase two or three. Best-case scenario, Tom: we're probably looking at six years to market, but I think that's a fast track. That will be a fast track, but I'm hopeful that when we approach FDA with this, they may, in fact, look upon it and say, “Okay.” This type of compound is not unknown, so it has a pretty good historical safety profile.

I believe that there is an urgent need to come up with alternatives to insulin. For whatever reason, Tom, there is some egregious price gouging going on in that market, and people are dying as a result, and I'm not being overdramatic in saying that. You can look at the press, the news, a whole variety of states, and see that people are actually rationing their insulin, using less-effective forms. People have to decide between groceries and insulin, and in some cases, it costs people more than their monthly mortgage, so it's a desperate situation for something that was sold — the patent for this — a lot of people aren't aware that the patent for insulin was sold in 1923 to the University of Toronto for the princely sum of CAN$3.

Tom:            And I understand, now, that a vial of insulin can be manufactured for about $7.

Ronan:          Yes, it is, depending on the grade and the type. It can vary from a very low price like that up to — I'm not sure of the final cost, but certainly, I would guess, no more than $20 or $30, but it's selling for people without insurance — I hear horror stories of people paying $400 to $500 a vial for the material, and that's something that, when you open it, you have to refrigerate it, and it's active for 28 days. What we're looking at is a tablet or a pill, and it's stable for two to three years.

Tom:            I believe I heard you say that a dose, let's put it that way, would last eight hours or so.

Ronan:          Yes.

Tom:                          So, theoretically, a person could take two of these pills a day.

Ronan:                       Theoretically, yes. Yes. It will vary per individual. And obviously, that would have to be determined medically by a person's physician, but I would think that, under normal circumstances, two pills per day, based on our studies, our modeling so far.

Tom:                          When you think beyond FDA approval and marketing and use, Ronan, what do you see out there as the implications for how this impacts the quality of life of diabetes patients?

Ronan:                       Well, if you look upon it this way, you'll see people in public and in restaurants looking at their little glucose pumps. You know, people still, every morning, come along and take that pinprick on their finger and look at the glucose strip and so forth. So, there’s a whole lifestyle associated with living with diabetes. Probably the biggest drawback I see for people is, you know, having to use all of the paraphernalia — the syringes, the needles, the phobia about the needle itself, even though, nowadays, it's tiny. Very thin needle indeed. But there’s so much that goes along with using insulin. I mean, having to refrigerate it, which is no problem in the West, but think about countries where refrigeration is not an option. Think about Africa.

Tom:                          Oh, it can limit your mobility too.

Ronan:                       Of course. Of course it can. And you know, we've done our stability testing on this. I mean, some of the models we use are mice. And can you imagine — we can put this compound into a mouse diet, right? Into a laboratory mouse diet, and retrieve it, fully active, 1 year later. We can pull it back out. So, it's an extremely stable compound.

                                    Now, insulin is basically a protein, so it will degrade. And that's why you have to refrigerate it, and it loses potency after a very limited period indeed. I think 28 days is the expiration on it. So, there are huge benefits for something like this, and indeed, companies have been struggling to develop an oral insulin preparation for decades, but I don't think anybody has ever looked at an alternative to actually physically activating the receptor.

Tom:                          Since this compound is being designed to treat a disease, I assume it would have to be approved and marketed as a pharmaceutical.

Ronan:                       Oh, absolutely, yes.

Tom:                          And that has implications for the company.

Ronan:                       Uh-huh. Yes.

Tom:                          Tell us about the discussions around that topic, because I know it's a very complicated one.

Ronan:                       Oh, it is. It's certainly a departure for Alltech. We have always been — well, apart from our beverage division and crop science — we've been very much associated with animal feed supplements and health supplements for animals. So, our dealings with regulatory bodies have been with the European Food Safety Authority in Europe (and) the Center for Veterinary Medicine branch of the FDA here, which deals with all of the ag products, if you will. We've had little or no dealings with the FDA itself, even though we did have initial discussions with them concerning a supplement we have called AT-001 some years back. But I think that while it will be a departure, it's an exciting new horizon for the company to actually get into something. We launched Alltech Life Sciences for that very purpose probably 8 or 9 years ago, to try to transfer some of our technology and products from the animal health arena to the human health area.

Tom:                          And it does seem to complement an announcement made at (ONE: The Alltech Ideas Conference) about the establishment of an Alltech foundation in partnership with UK Healthcare, which, of course, is human-oriented.

Ronan:                       Yes. Yes. I think that's an exciting prospect also. There are many, many excellent researchers and research laboratories at (the University of Kentucky), as you know. And many of those are active in the diabetes area, and I look forward very much to perhaps collaborating with them in the future. This may just be the first of many such preparations that we develop.

                                    We have other products in the pipeline, some of them related to diabetes. And as you know, we're also interested in neurodegenerative diseases. And we're also interested very much in intestinal health for humans. And by that, I mean, you know, trying to prevent this condition that is becoming quite pervasive in the U.S. and, indeed, in the West, which is sparked by what's called — I guess, rather unsavorily —  leaky gut syndrome. So, that leads, in turn, to a nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and that's a condition that afflicts perhaps 20% of the adult population in the U.S., to varying degrees. So, that’s the third area: digestive health. So, neurodegenerative health, digestive health and, also, the diabetic care or, if you like, metabolic health. That will be our three areas of focus.

Tom:                          Well, I know that you’re a consummate professional, but I also have to believe that, on a personal level, that this accomplishment feels like a pretty good achievement for you.

Ronan:                       It has been a long road. I have been very, very fortunate, Tom, in having some excellent colleagues working with me, many of whom have what I call “green fingers” in the laboratory — excellent scientists. Dr. ZJ Lan is one. I have two very good ladies working in the lab, Katie Eastridge and Hayley Kincaid. I’ve got Dr. Rijin Xiao, who works on the bioinformatics side of things, all the data collation. And Ryan Goettl is a young man who’s also working on bioinformatics. We’re all held in check and held together by Ms. Jeannie Francis, who herds us wherever we need to go, but I’ve been very fortunate, and our outside collaborations have also been excellent. It’s 12 years. It seems like a long road, but it has gone in a flash. So, it has —

Tom:                          As these things have a way of doing.

Ronan:                       Indeed.

Tom:                          Well, Ronan, good luck with this. Congratulations as well. And we will be anxious to follow your progress.

Ronan:                       I look forward to updating you as we go along, Tom. Thank you very much.

Tom:                          Dr. Ronan Power, vice president of Alltech’s Life Sciences division, we thank you very much.

Dr. Ronan Power spoke at ONE: The Alltech Ideas Conference (ONE). Click here to learn about ONE and how you can access innovation on demand.

There is nothing more important to us than the safety and well-being of our colleagues, customers and communities. As a family company, we understand that the interconnectedness of our lives means that the actions we take within our business have an impact on countless others, including family members and friends.

We share your concerns about the spread of COVID-19 globally. We are committed to doing our part to reduce COVID’s impact as quickly as possible, while maintaining our supply and service to you.

Our business spans more than 120 countries, so we first began monitoring COVID when it emerged in China. In spite of the many challenges, our team in China has continued serving our customers, and we have been able to maintain production and continuity of supply due to the strict biosecurity controls that we had already established prior to COVID-19.

As COVID-19 expanded its reach, we responded by establishing a dedicated COVID-19 task force representing all regions of the world. Together, with a team of senior management, we review the latest information, including the recommendations of the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on a daily basis to adapt our approach to this dynamic and evolving situation.

A few of the specific actions we have taken to prioritize the safety of our team and the continuity of our service to our customers include:

1. COVID-19 Company Policy – Our policy addresses limitations on travel of our team, including contractors and consultants, as well as other required practices to safeguard all of our sites.  This is something we are reviewing daily and continually updating to ensure best practice.
2. Visitor Screening Form – A visitor screening form must be completed by any guest, including internal guests and truck drivers, before they are able to enter any of our facilities. This measure is a first line of defense to safeguard against any known risks.
3. Limitation of outside visitors – While we are maintaining some business-critical meetings, we are utilizing virtual meeting platforms as an alternative or are postponing visits to a future date.  We are not allowing tours or visits to our facilities that are not deemed to be business-critical at this time. Truck drivers making deliveries or pickups are asked to stay within their cabs or as close to their trucks as possible, and any entry to our facilities must be approved following completion of the visitor screening form.
4. Enhanced cleaning protocols – In addition to our regular cleaning services, we have enhanced our procedures to occur at more frequent intervals and with greater attention to the disinfection of all surfaces. 
5. Team member health – We have required that any team member who is feeling ill will not return to the office until they have been free of a fever for more than 24 hours, without fever-reducing medications. Any high-risk exposure or confirmed case of COVID-19 necessitates a 14-day quarantine.
6. Operational continuity – Alltech operates nearly 100 manufacturing facilities around the world. Our global infrastructure enables us to shift production if necessary. We are working closely with all of our manufacturing teams to ensure operational continuity and service to our customers. We have implemented plans for all critical business units to work remotely, if required. As part of this, we continue to stress-test our systems and implement safeguards on the security of all data and technology.
7. Supply chain - We have been in contact with our key suppliers to review the status of all raw materials and have been reassured of continuity. While the majority of our materials and services are sourced in the Americas, we have built in contingencies globally, should the need to source from other geographies become necessary. Our global manufacturing and logistics capabilities position us favorably to continue to consistently serve our customers.

You can be assured that we will be staying in connection with you. Likewise, please keep in communication with our team, and let us know if you have any questions, concerns or additional needs.

We will continue to adapt to the challenges COVID-19 presents, focused foremost on your safety and ongoing service. Although COVID-19 has created unprecedented uncertainty, you can have complete confidence in our commitment to you.

Stay well,

Mark Lyons, Ph.D.

President and CEO, Alltech

For nine years now, Alltech has analyzed the animal feed industry through its annual Global Feed Survey, a yearly collection of data representing information from over 140 countries about feed manufactured for animal protein production. Those in the industry find this information useful; it’s an indicator of growth and progress and serves as a good resource for policy-makers, financiers and industry groups and associations. But why should the rest of us be interested in this data? What can the feed industry tell us about food trends, consumer demands and people’s tastes? As it turns out, quite a bit!

Alltech’s 2020 Global Feed Survey not only established the trends in feed production — it also gathered information through a qualitative survey to home in on these hot topics and see what their effect might be on animal agriculture and the feed industry as a whole. This year, the feed survey was presented by Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech, who moderated a panel discussion featuring industry experts in food and agriculture, including:

• Jack Bobo, CEO, Futurity
• Bianca Martins, general manager, Alltech Mexico
• Matthew Smith, vice president, Alltech U.K.
• Brian Lawless, North American species manager, Alltech

More than 1,200 people tuned in to watch these specialists dissect the data and analyze how feed production numbers reflect global trends.

How does animal feed production echo consumer trends?

The feed industry is at the very beginning of the food chain. The amount of compound feed (the grains fed to animals) grown in each country indicates what people there consume. The hype around current food trends might indicate that people are losing interest in animal protein, citing concerns over climate change or animal agriculture production practices. Whether consumers are truly seeking animal protein alternatives or not, however, is revealed by determining the number of animals being consumed and, therefore, how much feed is grown to produce those animals.

The feed survey actually indicated that the global consumption of meat is on the rise.* “Consumers are making more and more demands on [agriculture], one of them being alternative proteins,” Lyons said. “However, the impact may not be as strong as we once believed.”

Not everyone is eating soybeans and seaweed

As the results of Alltech’s annual animal feed survey revealed, if people are seeking alternative sources of protein, it’s not to the extent that the media hype might indicate. If anything, feed production for chicken, beef, milk and eggs is increasing, which means that people are still consuming those foods — and at a higher rate. Demand is on the rise, and countries that are developing and increasing in wealth are seeking more animal-based foods, including meat, milk and eggs. In countries where there is already a strong demand for meat and animal products, the idea that the population is making a major shift continues to circulate — but so far, that isn’t actually the case.

There are challenges associated with plant-based diets, such as ensuring that the body gets all the essential amino acids it needs. Some grains and legumes can serve as supplements, but they do not have the same level of bioavailability as meat. Consuming meat, milk and eggs is one way to guarantee that the body gets complete proteins. Despite claiming interest in alternative diets, nutrition is still a concern for many. As Martins explained, “Income is increasing in emerging markets, but people still aren’t eating well. It’s not enough to (just) feed people; the nutritional value must be there.”

Many meat substitutes also contain an array of mixed ingredients in order to appeal to the senses the way meat does: through taste, smell, texture, sight and sound. These additives, however, don’t appeal to the clean-label requests of many shoppers, who much prefer the one-ingredient label of traditional meats. Additionally, consider high-protein diets, such as keto and paleo, many of which rely heavily on animal protein for sustenance.

According to the 2020 Alltech Global Feed Survey, the need for animal protein as a food source is growing and will continue to grow, particularly in the poultry sector. In reference to African swine fever (ASF), which has decimated the pig populations of Asia-Pacific and Europe, Smith said, “The events of the past 18 months are moving us closer to the crossover point, where the world will consume more poultry (than pork).”

Eating plants won’t save the planet

Consumers often cite environmental concerns as one of the main reasons they prefer a plant-based diet. Unfortunately, two-thirds of agricultural land, also known as marginal land, is unusable for crop production; it is either too dry or the soil quality is poor. This land is, however, perfect for ruminant livestock animals, who can digest roughage and convert it into something humans are able to digest: meat and milk.

Conventional agriculture has gotten a bad reputation for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but what is often overlooked is the opportunity agriculture has to help alleviate not only its own emissions but, potentially, emissions from other industries as well. That’s right — farmers could effectively have a positive impact on GHG emissions. (If you want to learn more about this, check out our blogs on methane digesters and silvopasture, a natural approach to raising cattle in forested pastureland.)

If all 7.5 billion people on this planet decided to only consume plants, it would be very difficult to farm enough crops to provide everyone with a nutritionally balanced diet. Animals provide a way to turn the nutrients from our earth into something our bodies can use very effectively.

Technology to the rescue!

Advanced technology in agriculture (known as ag-tech) is also improving efficiencies in production by allowing farmers to use real-time data to maximize production, improve animal welfare, reduce waste and more. Precision agriculture allows farmers — including growers and producers of feed ingredients, such as corn and soybeans — to produce more with less.

We are currently producing 60% more milk with less than half as many cows as we once did, and this evolution has taken place over the span of just one generation. In the last 70 years, we have significantly improved feed efficiencies by gaining a better understanding of how the animal operates biologically, what type of nutrients it needs and how those nutrients are best absorbed by the body.

The Alltech Global Feed Survey shows us that the animal agriculture industry is strong and growing. Improved agricultural practices and technological advancements put agriculture and food production in a positive light. It’s not all doom and gloom — but “the messaging to consumers is very important,” as Lawless said.

There is clearly a disconnect between the potential of agriculture and the understanding of consumers, who are increasingly less knowledgeable about where their food comes from or how it is produced. “Consumers have never cared more, or known less, about where their food comes from,” said Bobo. Consumers are certainly keen to learn more about food production, and it is up to agriculture to tell the story.

*There was a decrease in overall feed production in 2019, but this was largely a result of African swine fever, a viral disease that is decimating the pig population, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Europe. All other indications for animal feed production show increases in production.

References

Butler, D. June 25, 2019. “Frank Mitloehner: Cattle, climate change and the methane myth.” AgFuture podcast. https://www.alltech.com/features-podcast-blog/frank-mitloehner-cattle-climate-change-and-methane-myth

Herrero, M., Henderson, B., Havlík, P. et al. Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector. Nature Clim Change 6, 452–461 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2925

Development of more rumen-friendly rations to mitigate both environmental and physical feed waste can be achieved with Alltech IFM, a unique tool to support diet formulation

[DUNBOYNE, Ireland, and SHROPSHIRE, U.K.] – Global animal nutrition company Alltech has launched its first European-based in vitro fermentation laboratory, Alltech IFM™, in collaboration with Harper Adams University in the U.K. Alltech IFM is a nutritional tool that simulates rumen fermentation and evaluates the digestibility of feed and forages within the animal.

For farmers and feed manufacturers, the use of Alltech IFM can identify barriers to achieving optimal rumen function. It enables rations to be formulated based on nutrient availability, helping to reduce energy losses and feed wastage.

Feed samples, which can include concentrates, fresh forages, silages or total mixed rations (TMRs), are incubated using rumen fluid for 48 hours and are then analysed for volatile fatty acids (VFA) and microbial biomass. Alltech IFM measures gas production throughout the process, meaning the amount of energy lost as methane and methane emissions per animal can be calculated. Validated by the Carbon Trust, Alltech IFM is an effective tool for predicting farm- and feed-specific enteric methane emissions.

Based at Harper Adams University in the U.K., this laboratory represents Alltech’s seventh IFM facility globally.

“The introduction of our Alltech IFM lab in Europe marks a significant step forward for us as we now have the ability to analyse European-based diets and ensure our customers benefit from further technical support,” said Matthew Smith, vice president of Alltech. 

The collaboration further strengthens Alltech’s research alliance with Harper Adams University, which was formed in 2013.

“Having the Alltech IFM lab at Harper Adams allows us to undertake more fundamental studies in terms of ruminant nutrition and ruminant metabolism so that we can optimise rumen fermentation and, therefore, improve animal health, performance and longevity,” said Professor Liam Sinclair of Harper Adams University.

“The goal of looking at rumen fermentation with Alltech IFM is to minimise the waste product or minimise the gas production and to maximise VFAs and microbial biomass, which are critical nutrients to the cow,” added Dr. Jim Huntington of Harper Adams University.

“Together with the team at Harper Adams, we look forward to generating new insights and highlighting how certain diets correlate with high-producing dairy and beef systems across Europe. Now more than ever before, we believe Alltech IFM can play a significant role in helping to address those major environmental concerns, reduce waste on-farm and, ultimately, contribute to a Planet of Plenty™,” said Smith.

The 2020 Alltech Global Feed Survey estimates that international feed tonnage decreased by 1.07% to 1.126 billion metric tons of feed produced last year, due largely to African swine fever (ASF) and the decline of pig feed in the Asia-Pacific region. The top nine feed-producing countries are the U.S., China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Spain, Japan and Germany. Together, these countries produce 58% of the world’s feed production and contain 57% of the world’s feed mills, and they can be viewed as an indicator of overall trends in agriculture.

Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech, shared the survey results via public livestream from Alltech’s global headquarters in Nicholasville, Kentucky.

“2019 presented extreme challenges to the feed industry, with one of the most significant being African swine fever. The regional and global implications are reflected by the Alltech Global Feed Survey and the decline in global feed production, said Lyons. “While pig feed production is down in affected countries, we are noting increased production both in other species as producers work to supplement the protein demand, and in non-affected countries as exports ramp up. The damage caused by ASF will have long-term implications, and we expect that the top protein sources will continue to shift as our industry adapts to the shortage.”

The global data, collected from 145 countries and nearly 30,000 feed mills, indicates feed production by species as: broilers 28%; pigs 24%; layers 14%; dairy 12%; beef 10%; other species 6%; aquaculture 4%; and pets 2%. Predominant growth came from the layer, broiler, aqua and pet feed sectors. 

Regional results from the 2020 Alltech Global Feed Survey

• North America: The U.S. is the largest feed-producing country globally with an estimated 214 million metric tons (MMT), with beef (61.09 MMT), broilers (48.525 MMT) and pigs (44.86 MMT) as the leading species. North America saw steady growth of 1.6% over last year. Canada produced 21.6 MMT with pigs (8.23 MMT), broilers (3.25 MMT) and dairy (4.2 MMT) leading species feed production.

• Latin America: As a region, Latin America saw 2.2% growth to 167.9 MMT. Brazil remained the leader in feed production for the region and third overall globally, with the primary species for feed production being broilers (32.1 MMT) and pigs (17.0 MMT). Brazil, Mexico and Argentina continue to produce the majority of feed in Latin America with 76% of regional feed production.

• Europe: Europe remained relatively stagnant with a slight increase of 0.2% over last year. The top three feed-producing countries in Europe are Russia (40.5 MMT), Spain (34.8 MMT) and Germany (25.0 MMT), with pig feed production leading the way in all three countries. The ruminant sector was hit the hardest as both dairy and beef numbers are estimated to be down by 4% and 3%, respectively. This was offset primarily by strong growth in the aqua (7%) and layer (3%) industries.

• Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific region saw feed production decrease by 5.5% in 2019, primarily due to African swine fever and large declines in pig feed production. China’s feed production declined by almost 20 MMT of feed overall to 167.9 MMT and fell from the top feed-producing country globally to second, behind the U.S. India and Japan remained in the top nine feed-producing countries, with similar production compared to 2018 with 39.0 MMT and 25.3 MMT, respectively, while Vietnam declined by 7%.

• Africa: Africa continued strong growth with a 7.5% increase in overall feed production, with all the primary species seeing positive growth. The top five feed-producing countries in the region account for 75% of Africa’s feed production, and they are South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco and Algeria. The region’s primary species include broiler, layer and dairy, and combined, they account for nearly half of feed production estimates in the region.

Notable species results from the 2020 Alltech Global Feed Survey

• Pig feed production was greatly impacted by African swine fever, with an 11% decrease. The primary producing region for pig feed remains Asia-Pacific, but it also experienced the largest decline of 26%, with China (-35%), Cambodia (-22%), Vietnam (-21%) and Thailand (-16%) experiencing large decreases. Europe, North America and Latin America remained relatively stable compared to last year, within a percentage point’s worth of gain or loss. While Africa is a small region from a tonnage standpoint for pig feed, it showed a large increase of 29%.  

• In the poultry sector, Asia-Pacific is the leader in both broiler (115.2 MMT) and layer (73.1 MMT) feed. In Latin America, total broiler production amounted to 60.8 MMT, with Brazil leading the region with 32.1 MMT followed by Mexico with 10.5 MMT, while Mexico’s layer feed production increased by 11% to 7.05 MMT and surpassed Brazil. Russia leads Europe with 10.86 MMT of the total region’s 56.3 MMT of broiler feed and 5.3 MMT of the region’s total of 33.5 MMT of layer feed. In North America, the U.S. accounts for 94% of the broiler feed with 48.5 MMT, while layer feed in Canada increased by 460,000 metric tons. 

• Europe leads global dairy feed production with 34% followed by North America (21.8%), Asia-Pacific (17.6%) and Latin America (15.3%). The top dairy feed- producing countries are Turkey (6.5 MMT), Germany (5.2 MMT), Russia (4.2 MMT), the U.K. (3.8 MMT), France (3.4 MMT), the Netherlands (3.3. MMT) and Spain (3.2 MMT).

• North America continues to lead global beef feed production with 62.3 MMT, followed by Europe (21.9 MMT) and Latin America (13.9 MMT). For the 2020 Alltech Global Feed Survey, the beef feed production estimation was recalculated to improve its accuracy. The new estimate takes into account the average days on feed and intake as a percentage of body weight in the feedlot. Last year’s estimation was also recalculated to reflect this formula change for a proper year-on-year comparison.

• Overall, aquaculture feeds showed growth of 4% over last year. Per ton, Asia-Pacific grew the most with an additional 1.5 MMT. The primary contributors were China, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Europe’s decrease is in large part due to decreased feed production in Russia, which is primarily due to an increase in imports.

• The pet food sector saw growth of 4% with the largest tonnage increases in Asia-Pacific (10%), Europe (3%) and Latin America (6%). By country, increases were seen in China, Indonesia, Portugal, Hungary, Ecuador and Argentina. 

During the live presentation, Dr. Lyons was joined by a panel of industry experts, including Jack Bobo, CEO, Futurity, USA; Matthew Smith, vice president, Alltech, U.K.; Bianca Martins, general manager, Alltech, Mexico; and Brian Lawless, North America species manager, Alltech, USA. The group discussed the trends behind the data and the implications for the global market. Topics ranged from consumer demands to the adoption of new technology.

To access insights from the 2020 Alltech Global Feed Survey, including a recording of the panel discussion, an interactive map and presentation slides, visit alltechfeedsurvey.com.

The Alltech Global Feed Survey assesses compound feed production and prices through information collected by Alltech’s global sales team and in partnership with local feed associations in the last quarter of 2019. It is an estimate serving as a resource for policymakers, decision-makers and industry stakeholders.

Australia Farming Relief Fund will support producers impacted by bushfires

[NICHOLASVILLE, Ky.] – Even as rain begins to fall in some parts of Australia, wildfires continue to devastate large portions of the country. The fires have already destroyed an estimated 10 million hectares, claiming 25 lives and killing wildlife and livestock. Alltech, a leading animal nutrition company, is lending its support to the country’s agriculture industry, launching a global fundraising effort for farmers and pledging to match donations dollar-for-dollar. The Australia Farming Relief Fund will provide goods and services directly to producers and will be coordinated on the ground by Alltech family companies Alltech Lienert Australia and KEENAN Australia.  

“The Australia Farming Relief Fund represents a coordinated effort among our Alltech family, suppliers, customers and the global agriculture industry to support the producers who feed our families and are the core of our rural communities,” said Mark Peebles, managing director of Alltech Lienert, which is located in Roseworthy, Australia. “The bushfires have been devastating, but Australians are resilient, and we are committed to rallying around our farmers as they recover from this crisis.”

As farmers assess the damage, the loss of livestock is expected to exceed 100,000 animals. Producers, who were already contending with a three-year drought, are struggling to secure supplies and feed.

Alltech Lienert and KEENAN Australia will use their resources to distribute supplies either donated locally or purchased using donations from the Australia Farming Relief Fund. Such supplies will include hay, finished feed, feed supplements, silage, water troughs, fencing and non-perishable items. The companies will deploy their trucks and drivers to deliver supplies to producers in Victoria, South Australia, New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland. Team members will also volunteer their time to work alongside farmers, rebuilding fences, repairing sheds and providing any on-farm support they need.

The effort will initially focus on dairies, sheep and beef farms, and apiaries. Alltech is also exploring partnerships that will offer longer-term mental health support for farmers grappling with trauma as a result of the fires.

Donations to the Australia Farming Relief Fund, collected through the Pearse Lyons ACE Foundation, Alltech’s 501(c)(3) nonprofit, can be made here.

-Ends-

Photo download:https://photos.alltech.com/pf.tlx/.Zx.1n.Zv_8NI

Caption: The bushfires in Australia have destroyed an estimated 10 million hectares, claiming lives and killing wildlife and livestock. The Australia Farming Relief Fund will help provide goods and services directly to effected farmers, coordinated on the ground by Alltech family companies Alltech Lienert Australia and KEENAN Australia. Alltech is matching donations dollar-for-dollar.

Contact: Lauren Dozier, Corporate Communications Manager, Alltech

press@alltech.com; +1 859-351-8892   

WHAT:            Join Dr. Mark Lyons, president and CEO of Alltech, as he shares the results of the ninth annual Alltech Global Feed Survey during a panel discussion with industry leaders. The presentation will be livestreamed from Alltech’s global headquarters in Nicholasville, Kentucky. 

                        Panelists include:

• Jack Bobo, CEO, Futurity, USA
• Bianca Martins, General Manager, Alltech, Mexico
• Matthew Smith, Vice President, Alltech, UK

Alltech’s annual evaluation of compound feed production is the most complete of its kind, including data from more than 140 countries and approximately 30,000 feed mills, covering all species of production animals. The presentation will highlight trends in feed production at a regional level, key insights for specific countries, what changes the industry may expect within the next year and looking beyond the data to explore the impact on farmers, the feed industry and the regions in which they operate.

WHEN:            Monday, Jan. 27, 2020

                        10:00 a.m. EST                      

WHERE:         Register for the livestream presentation here.

OTHER:           Information from the 2019 Alltech Global Feed Survey is currently available online at alltechfeedsurvey.com and will be updated with 2020 information following the livestream presentation, including a video recording of the presentation.